Biology and Life

The Dawn of a New Technological Era: Riding Four Exponentials at Once

It’s an incredibly exciting time to be someone who works across different fields of science and tech. With all the doom and gloom, we hear about R&D policy and geopolitical uncertainties, it’s easy to get pessimistic. These are the times when one needs to put on a dreamer’s hat and there’s actually immense cause for optimism. We’re at a really unique point in history, where four powerful exponential trends are all coming together (https://ekta.net/LI/ExpConv.html). For what is possibly the first time, the foundational pillars of innovation are all accelerating simultaneously: Raw computational power at your tips (exaflops, vibrant open-source software and tools ecosystem, tremendous algorithmic developments including AI/ML, reduction in costs for everything data – storage, memory, bandwidth) Abundant, sustainable, and cheap energy (electrons from solar and storage; associated power electronics and controls; energy efficient devices such as lights, cameras, heat pumps) The deep wisdom of our planet’s four-billion-year evolutionary history (genomics, evolution of intelligence and life, biotech, protein folding, medicine and microbiome) These aren’t just small steps forward, but these tectonic shifts will overcome the noise we are seeing today. It’s going to be a total game-changer in what we can do to create real value for society. The big names of the last tech boom, like Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta, Intel, Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD rode the powerful wave of Moore’s Law. Now, we have a chance to ride not just one, but multiple, intersecting “Wright’s Laws” at the nexus of the digital and physical worlds. The things we can do now by democratizing power directly from sun while leveraging digital tools and evolution were just science fiction a decade ago. Just think about what this means. Imagine having the sensory ability of a dog’s nose on your watch, a device that could continuously check for the faint hormonal signals of stress or the early biomarkers of disease. This would totally change personal medicine and health. Or think about shoes that can pick up subtle vibrations like animals do, giving you feedback on your run but also alerting you to an approaching tsunami, earthquake, or tornado. This convergence lets us tackle big, systemic problems in a whole new way. We can now aim to create truly explainable AI models of financial markets, letting us make investment or policy decisions based more on numbers and probabilities instead of just opaque, black-box predictions. We can engineer solutions like the “Shunya” (zero-impact) toilet (https://ekta.net/LI/shunya-waterless-toilet-v1.html), a standalone unit that, powered only by the sun, converts human refuse back to its basic, harmless components: CO₂, H₂O, and valuable minerals. Or we can build smart traffic control systems that see a city’s traffic as a single, fluid system, optimizing flow to cut down on congestion and even suggesting when you should leave home or work based on your schedule while optimizing the whole system. The possibilities are endless when we use these converging technologies to create sustainable solutions that improve our quality of life. It’s not a question of whether we can solve these big challenges anymore, but how we’re going to do it? Put on your dreamer’s hat and list out what else becomes possible at this convergence?  

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Simple Introduction to the Geometry of Learning

Everyone learns differently. For me, the most intuitive way to grasp complex ideas has always been through geometry and visualization. This is how I learned machine learning techniques like LLE (Local Linear Embedding) and ISOMAP when I was first introduced to them in 2007. Long before that I was thinking about the reduction of big data to small data through various multiscale techniques in the pursuit of constructing reduced order models. When I see the shape of a problem, I begin to understand its structure. This is the simple idea behind a mini project I’m excited to share: an interactive webpage designed to explore the “Geometry of Learning.” My goal was to take some of the most abstract and powerful concepts in modern AI, ideas like high-dimensional data, manifolds, transfer learning, and latent space, and make them more tangible and accessible. I wanted to simplify these topics so that more of us can understand and use the AI tools effectively, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), that are rapidly becoming a part of our daily lives. Whether we realize it or not, LLMs now underline many of the technologies we use, from creative tools to a simple Google search. As these algorithms become more integrated into our world, it’s crucial that we develop an awareness of how they work. Understanding that an LLM learns by creating a compressed, geometric “map” of reality (a latent manifold) helps us appreciate both its incredible power and its inherent weaknesses. This knowledge is our best defense against falling into the “hallucination trap,” those moments when an AI produces a confident, plausible-sounding answer that is completely wrong. By understanding that the model is navigating a learned map, we can better appreciate when it’s on a well-trodden path versus when it’s wandering into uncharted territory where errors are likely to occur. I’ve also added a forward-looking section to the webpage. My goal here is to think about how we can build on the massive investments already made in Generative AI to advance the accuracy of predictions and reduce hallucinations. It’s my belief that the current path of simply scaling up models might not be enough to get us to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Real breakthroughs will be necessary, and I hope this exploration gives some context for where we might look for them. I hope you find this webpage helpful. I’ve tried to keep the content as pedantically correct as possible while simplifying it for a broader population. A quick note on the animations you’ll see: they are conceptual tools designed to illustrate the underlying principles. They are not meant to be exact reproductions of the complex reality of these systems, but rather visual aids to help build intuition. Please explore, interact, and I hope it helps you see the beautiful geometry that underpins modern AI. I have some foundational references at the end for you to explore this topic in-depth.

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Ideas Are Funny Little Things

“Ideas are funny little things. They won’t work unless we do.” This is the quote on a plaque in my living room. It’s the only heirloom I valued enough to bring from my childhood home in India. As you can see from the image, the plaque has gained round edges and chips from all the falls it has endured over four decades. My own learnings, shaped by the computational transformation of our lives, has been similarly molded. I feel the need to create a new plaque that reads: “Ideas are funny little things. They won’t work unless we leverage machines and do.” I was a curious kid with a continuous barrage of questions: Why? How? What? This desire to know, however, was somewhat suppressed. I grew up in a society that encourages children to speak only when spoken to, and in a middle-class family, there weren’t many who had the time to entertain a child’s never-ending questions. This steered me toward becoming a more introverted boy who learned by observing, creating mental frameworks to make sense of the world, and developing systems thinking to connect things on multiple levels. This inward journey of hypothesizing and justifying outcomes became natural, though sometimes in ways that weren’t grounded in reality. In a way, I was like a modern LLM, living in my own world of hallucinations. I was a curious explorer with a passion for cricket until I changed schools after the 8th grade. It was then that I became serious about studying for the engineering entrance exams, and I was fortunate enough to be accepted into an IIT. Throughout my undergraduate and graduate days, most of the coursework bored me. The one thread that continuously inspired me, however, was our growing ability to model and simulate the world around us. When you model something from first principles, you can answer questions like “Why?”, “How?”, and “What?” and perform all kinds of what-if analyses. I could finally build on my childhood explorations, but now they were grounded in solid scientific and theoretical underpinnings. Fate would have it that I ended up working on one of the most challenging computational topics: the turbulent combustion of two-phase flows, a field at the intersection of fluid dynamics and chemistry. It was a humbling experience. I could only make a small dent in the field, and there has been only limited progress in the 30 years since. However, this journey raised new questions in my mind. By working across the disciplines of domain sciences, applied math, computer science, and statistics, I developed a deep appreciation for what I call computational thinking. This is the ability to take a problem and convert it into a computational one that can be solved in-silico. This conversion requires a blend of skills: domain knowledge (physics, chemistry, biology), the ability to map that knowledge onto theories and equations with appropriate approximations (engineering), an underlying understanding of the algorithms to solve those equations (applied math), the knowledge of how to best solve it using massive parallelization (computer science), and robust analysis (probability and statistics). It’s also critical to ground this process in the specific question you’re trying to answer, the level of fidelity needed, and the constraints of time and money. By tackling one of the toughest computational problems, coupled with access to the largest supercomputers of the time and a background in math, CS, and physics, I started developing the skills for a career in computational science. I was recruited from Georgia Tech while still finishing my Ph.D. to help a national lab respond to an important DOE initiative called SSI (Strategic Simulation Initiative), which aimed to develop a high-fidelity digital twin of an Internal Combustion Engine. I visited Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore even before officially joining Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to help lay down a stake for the lab in this $70 million initiative. In a twist of fate, the project’s funding was eliminated by Congress. In retrospect, this was fortunate for me, as it forced me out of my comfort zone to explore applications beyond my niche. The bifurcation chart below shows my evolution from those early days at Georgia Tech to a Distinguished Staff Member at ORNL, and now, for the last 10 years, as a Research Fellow at SABIC. At ORNL, I was a true explorer, working on a broad range of problems and across disciplines with some of the best minds in computational science. Later, I was recruited by SABIC to focus on a narrow set of capabilities I had developed at ORNL. Working in a corporate research organization helped me focus on a few key problems and deliver solutions. We developed and optimized a novel reactor entirely in-silico, de-risking it through extensive experimentation. If successful, it will displace the century-old steam cracker for converting hydrocarbons to olefins. We also developed unique solutions that leverage the low melting point of plastics to create self-quenching, safer batteries. Through work with the World Economic Forum and other petrochemical companies, I also gained exposure to policy and the need for broader stakeholder engagement to bring sustainability solutions to market. Over the last three decades, many ideas have been brewing in my mind. I never had a chance to develop them further because I was limited by my own abilities or because they were adjacent to my core expertise, requiring dedicated time I didn’t have. Time is a finite resource, and it was difficult to translate those ideas into proofs-of-concept (POCs) and actionable plans. Fast forward to today. I am having a blast turning many of those lurking ideas into POCs and actionable plans. This is possible thanks to the computational thinking I’ve honed over the last 30 years and my curious explorations over five decades. What made the difference? LLMs, AI/ML tools, the open-source software ecosystem, and low-cost hardware have dramatically reduced the barrier to fleshing out ideas and creating prototypes. It is an exciting feeling to pour life into one’s ideas, weed out the bad

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Dawn of a golden era for computational science!

For those of you who are not familiar with computational science – it is the discipline at the intersection of domain science, computer science, applied mathematics, and engineering. In a nutshell, it is the link between everything you touch and feel (natural and human-made) and rapidly growing computing. The most challenging science and technology problems whether related to life sciences or physical sciences fall into the grand challenge category in the simple 2×2 classification of AI Application Landscape Heatmap below and posted on LinkedIn. These problems are hard and yet to be solved as the problem dimensionality (one can think of number of parameters to explore all the solution space) is extremely high and in turn would need a lot of experimentation and data. AI, machine learning, and good statistical science can help in reducing experiments, but they cannot create more information than what is contained in the data. This is where computational science plays an important role in bridging domain science knowledge with AI/ML tools. If you think of an equation, theory, or laws (E = mc2; Newton’s laws of motion or theory of general relativity; laws of thermodynamics), they are the compact representations of our knowledge of the universe and underlying processes. Blackbox models like AI/ML or many statistical tools throw away all this knowledge and relearn all the basic interactions as they are trained on available data. This is where for these grand challenge problems it is important to incorporate all available knowledge into efficient processes where only new things are learnt and thus reducing the dimensionality of the grand challenge problems. This in turn would make solutions to these problems more accessible to AI and ML. If we look past all the debate of the value of the AI investments or whether AI will become sentient and reach human intelligence or superintelligence, what is fundamentally happening is enormous investments in computing hardware with unprecedented explosion of computing power. The hardware (computing, memory bandwidth, storage, wired and wireless networking) is getting exponentially cheaper by the day and more power efficient. This is leading to ubiquitous computing where we have powerful computing devices in our hand (a supercomputer not so long ago) and connected to the backend mega servers at lower costs than ever before. This trend is only going to continue as mentioned in the recent AMD’s Advancing AI Event (https://youtu.be/zCOqJx3Yst4?si=X_pPgYr3WGJVKnMY); the expected investments in AI are going to cross $500B by 2030 and currently the market is projected to have an incredible CAGR of 80%. If I translate that to increase in computational power, that is greater than 80% rate as computing is getting lot cheaper by the day. This means that this is the 2007 internet moment for computational science. The hardware is coming, and the question is how can we leverage decades of efforts in computational science in building the knowledge, the tools, the algorithms, the connections between computing and real world, and leverage advances in AI/ML and the associated ecosystem to rapidly create ecosystems to create value to the society via both natural and physical sciences. This will span innovations in health sciences, energy, materials, weather and climate, sustainability, defense, and in short across all sectors. This also means that computational thinking is an important skill for the modern workforce – the ability to translate problems and processes into streamlined instructions to the ever-increasing computing that is going to be all around us. As I have posted recently, AI is already enabling rapid multiplication of effort of well thought out constructs by removing the drudgery of lot of copy and paste coding and debugging and also synthesizing information across the disciplines as the natural world does not have the silos of the traditional academic disciplines. The folks who can see this future and adapt will be on the right side of the disruption and the others will be left behind.

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